Our COVID-19 tracking device has identified high risk areas in Abia — Ike, state varsity invention team leader

The Abia State University, Uturu recently announced it developed a Geographical Tracking Device and Live COVID-19 Risk Map for the state and Nigeria. Dr. Felix Ike, head of the invention team and the school’s Department of Geography and Planning, tells SUNDAY NWAKANMA about the benefits of the device in the ongoing fight to curb the spread of the disease.

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The invention of the COVID-19 Geographical Tracking Device has been commended as it is said that it will help to monitor the movement of the virus in the state, how will it do that?

It is not only a device; it is more of a system that we built using modelling techniques, which were born using geographic system, remote sensing and similar technology. What we were able to achieve in the laboratory was to assemble different types of data, some which are static, while others are dynamic. We were able to merge the data. We used the data to develop something that will tell us the likelihood that the virus will be in a particular area or the element of risk in the area. So this system has the capability to tell us when it is at risk and how will it spread when it comes. And it tells us to what extent it will spread, people to be affected, why, how and when. These are the types of questions that the system can actually answer.

Will it show how people who have the virus move about in the state?

No, there are two aspects involved. One is called Geographic Tracking and Mapping of the coronavirus and the second one is the Production of Risk Map. We are in the risk map stage and it is specifically for Abia State. It shows those that are exposed and to what extent they are exposed.

So, it is telling us the level of exposure to danger. Because there has not been any index case in Abia State, we are looking at the areas that are likely going to be at risk and to what extent. That is why we are able to look at different risk levels and those risk levels are graduated from very low risks to instant risks in different parts of the state for each local government area and geographic area. In fact, it cuts across different geographic regions, revealing the different aspects of risk.

How will it tell who has the virus?

If there is an index case in Abia State, we will now ask, who has the virus? We will get the data of that person and other socio-economic matrices of the person. We put it into the system, the model we have developed, and the model will start tracking the person and telling us the likelihood that the people in a certain area will have also have the virus. It will look at the trend it is going to take and various things about the person that has the virus.

However, there are some data I cannot disclose that has to do with intellectual property. It will answer the following questions: what are the socio-economic data? What are the socio-economic matrices? Who is he/she? Who have they interacted with in the last five days? With that data, it will now tell us so many other things and we will do a kind of Narrow Spectrum Analysis. We will channel it down and be able to advise government to monitor a particular area or areas as there is the possibility that people around there will have the virus. We will also give geographical coordinates of the areas that we are sure the virus must be. So, it will help the government.

How did the project start?

Abia State University is a centre of excellence and when I returned from England, UK, I had the opportunity to do a PhD through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund. I was appointed the Head of the Department. Over the years, with the help of the school’s vice-chancellor, Governing Council and other members of the university, I came up with a long list in collaboration with other members of the department.

We were able to inform the government about the equipment that we needed to enable us conduct researches in the Centre for Epidemiology and Climate Research. The vice-chancellor, in collaboration with the Governing Council and other people, secured the equipment for us. For example, we have an Automatic Weather Station imported from Cambridge, UK and we also have a GIS laboratory. We have a Remote Sensing Laboratory and many others.

We usually keep in the university the research results of students who conduct researches in different areas in the state. We have been keeping the data. When the pandemic came, we merged all the data in that system and it started giving us very sound updatable results and they are online.

What do you hope to achieve with it, especially as Abia State doesn’t have COVID-19 cases like some other states?

Since the state has not had any case, we are presently at the Map Risk Area. For instance, we informed the government that as at April 9, 2020, the risk was between Ukwa and Aba (North and South). Then in Umuahia South and part of Umuahia North, we are having a very high risk. But few days ago, around the state border, especially in Ohafia, and Isuikwuato Local Government Area, the risk was very high. But based on the update we are getting, the risk is gradually reducing in Isuikwuato and Ohafia axis.

I think there is something happening at the border regions of Abia State, but the border area that we are worried about is the border between the state and Rivers State. This is the area we think something could happen – between Ukwa and Aba, but nobody is praying for that to happen.

This suggests how the tracking device been put to use so far…

Yes. For now, it is at the Risk Map Level. We have developed risk maps at different levels. So, what the government can do now is to say the risk is high along this axis, let us keep the area under surveillance. Why not plan to mitigate the risk along this area? This is what the government should and is doing for now.

The government is looking at this information and it will save the state some cost because we live in a world where you have to look at the economic cost and comparative advantage. For example, the virus will not come up in an arid area or in a desert where nobody is living. The likelihood that it will be there is very low and it is a similar model we are using.

Does the university intend to share the technology with other states, which are particularly ravaged by the disease?

This is for the Centre for Epidemiology and Climate Research under the Abia State University; it is an intellectual property and any state that wants to do that will go through the university or the state government for the centre to be able to share and give them some ideas concerning what we have done. Once we have a platform like this, we encourage. The technology will be adapted to that state and it shows that the country is improving and developing. So, it must have to go through the university council.

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Earlier, your team produced hand sanitisers and face masks but many Nigerians are saying you should focus more on finding a way to make ventilators as that is grossly in short supply, what do you think?

I quite agree with you to an extent. Most times, people believe that when there is an epidemic, we are not prepared. Our problem is implementing policies. This is like the case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and government should have thought: ‘Should we have a case like this, how would we handle it?’ If government had envisaged that something like this could happen, then we would have had them available. This is what happened with our case; we were already planning ahead.

Is there no plan being made by the university to produce ventilators?

Yes, we have an engineering department and I cannot speak for them but I am aware that different departments in the university are working hard and I am sure more innovations will be coming from the university. I am sure that a collaboration between our engineering department and the College of Medicine would bring out ventilators.

What other innovations should be expected from your team?

Yes, the next innovation is like a plan. We don’t pray for an index case in Abia State, but once it comes, the next innovation is that device. We will be able to evaluate the adaptability of this device which is geographical mapping of the areas we think have high risk: how would this device link that index case? Where were they coming from? What were the transportation routes they used? What are the features of the area? What are the socio-economic indices of those people? Are they rich or poor? What is the sanitation habit of those people? Are they exposed?

After the COVID-19 pandemic, are there other things you can use your inventions for?

We will provide data and create a platform for the government to work for the future. So, if something comes up later, even if not a pandemic, but a disease like cholera or Lassa fever, we will have to track it. So, continuity and sustainability are very important. We have to sustain it and keep it for the future. We are also training people on how to use the platform as natural disasters and climate change know no bounds. There will be a moderation of the machines for other uses; all that has to be done is to edit the indices of the machine for the use.

Source: Punch